Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Rams vs. Panthers
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 263.5 (-133) after it opened @ 268.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 37.6 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
- Matthew Stafford has passed for quite a few more yards per game (268.0) this year than he did last year (219.0).
- Matthew Stafford’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.4% to 69.5%.
Cons
- The Rams are a giant 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.74 seconds per snap.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards
294
Passing Yards
