Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-115) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
Justin Herbert has attempted 41.8 throws per game this year, grading out in the 85th percentile among quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert has been among the top quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 295.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.

Cons

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 199.0 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, conceding 6.47 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards