Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jacoby Brissett from EV Insight

Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards

Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-120) after it opened @ 213.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Jacoby Brissett has thrown for significantly more yards per game (230.0) this year than he did last year (125.0).
Jacoby Brissett’s passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 60.2% to 66.4%.

Cons

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 30.0 passes this week, on average: the least of all QBs.

Projection

THE BLITZ
190
Passing Yards