NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 266.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 266.5 (-101) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Geno Smith’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 68.8% to 74.6%.
- Geno Smith has been among the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.97 yards-per-target while ranking in the 84th percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.7%).
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards
296
Passing Yards
