Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Joe Burrow has passed for many more yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a terrific 66.8% Completion%, ranking in the 81st percentile.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Joe Burrow’s throwing effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a mere 6.95 yards-per-target compared to a 8.12 rate last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards