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Chris Meaney
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Saints vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Joe Burrow has passed for many more yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).
- Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a terrific 66.8% Completion%, ranking in the 81st percentile.
- The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Joe Burrow’s throwing effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a mere 6.95 yards-per-target compared to a 8.12 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards
294
Passing Yards
