Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 245.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the OVER up to 245.5 (+104) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).

Pros

Aaron Rodgers has been among the best precision passers in the league this year with a terrific 69.1% Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.
The New York Jets defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 7.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Cons

The Packers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 57.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 34.7 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards