Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Packers vs. Jets
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 245.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the OVER up to 245.5 (+104) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).
Pros
- Aaron Rodgers has been among the best precision passers in the league this year with a terrific 69.1% Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.
- The New York Jets defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 7.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- The Packers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 57.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 34.7 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
