Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The FTN team uses the Week 6 fantasy football game-by-game to identify some of the key player props to bet on in this week’s Jets/Packers game.
Green Bay (3-2) will host the surprise New York Jets (3-2) Sunday at 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field. The Packers are coming off a disappointing 27-22 loss to the Giants in London, while the Jets are on a two-game winning streak over the Steelers and Dolphins.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets Player Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers threw for 221 yards and a pair of touchdowns in London last week, giving him four straight contests with at least two passing touchdowns… he should remain aggressive against a Jets pass defense that is allowing the second-highest aDOT in the league through five weeks (9.1 yards) and coughing up the 10th-highest passing touchdown rate at 4.6%.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
With four straight games of at least two passing touchdowns, there is no reason to go away from Aaron Rodgers at home against a poor Jets secondary. Most books have this prop around -190 or higher, we are still grabbing the value at the current PointsBet mark of -150.
AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
Dillon touched the ball only six times last week, but has also been the team’s goal-line running back, seeing 100% of Green Bay’s carries from inside the 5-yard line and 50% of the carries from inside the 10. Prior to Week 5, Dillon was averaging 16.5 touches per game, so I think the six touches from last week are a bit of a mirage…
Picks: AJ Dillon Over 50.5 Rushing Yards; Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts
This is the AJ Dillon week. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur mistakenly went away from the run against the Giants, despite averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 19 running back attempts. Both prop numbers are suppressed based on last week, but the Packers should see a more positive gamescript as over a touchdown favorite at home. Dillon’s rushing yardage prop is a favorable -110, and tethered to a rushing attempt prop juiced to the over (-130)
Zach Wilson, QB, New York Jets
In the two games since Zach Wilson has returned to the lineup, the Jets have become a run-first team, whereas Joe Flacco was throwing the ball 50 times per game. It is good to see for the Jets offense, but it isn’t exactly translating to terrific fantasy totals from Wilson. Against a Green Bay defense that is coughing up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers this season, Wilson can be left on waivers in traditional, one-QB leagues.
Pick: Zach Wilson Under 213.5 Passing Yards
Green Bay allows the second-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL, including just 87 per game to Chicago and New England. While the Jets offense is better than either of those two opponents, Wilson has fallen short of his number in 10 of his 15 career starts. There is currently under 216.5 at -114, available on BetRivers.
