Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-131) after it opened @ 51.5 (-119).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Saints to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Alvin Kamara is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 rush attempts.
- Among all RBs, Alvin Kamara grades out in the 93rd percentile for carries since the start of last season, taking on 55.9% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.
- With an excellent rate of 57.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (84th percentile), Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the leading pure runners in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Saints have been the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.6% run rate.
- Alvin Kamara’s ground efficiency (3.93 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (22nd percentile when it comes to RBs).
- With an atrocious total of 2.73 yards after contact (21st percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara places among the least powerful RBs in the league.
- This year, the imposing New England Patriots run defense has given up a mere 100.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 9th-best in football.
- The New England Patriots safeties project as the best unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
