Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Rashee RiceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Chiefs
Right now, Rashee Rice’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
- Rashee Rice has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching an outstanding 73.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
- This year, the feeble Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered a colossal 188.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
