NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Quintin MorrisReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Steelers
Right now, Quintin Morris’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (+100/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-135) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 71.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 14-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
