WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Richie JamesReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Packers vs. Giants
Right now, Richie James’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Richie James to accrue 6.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
- Richie James has been an integral part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 20.0% this year, which ranks him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
- Richie James has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching an impressive 78.7% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 88th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Giants rank as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
