WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Browns vs. Chargers
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+104/-128).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-128) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Gerald Everett to accrue 5.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Gerald Everett has put up significantly more air yards this year (52.0 per game) than he did last year (22.0 per game).
- Gerald Everett’s 37.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 27.5.
- Gerald Everett has compiled many more receiving yards per game (51.0) this year than he did last year (31.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- Gerald Everett’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.2% to 62.4%.
- The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
