WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- Irv Smith Jr. has run a route on 59.1% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- The leading projections forecast Irv Smith Jr. to accrue 5.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- When it comes to air yards, Irv Smith Jr. grades out in the towering 77th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a massive 23.0 per game.
Cons
- This game’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Bengals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s 56.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a a remarkable regression in his pass-catching ability over last year’s 73.2% rate.
- The Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.4%) to TEs this year (67.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
