Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-134/+102).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 99.5 (+102) after it opened @ 103.5 (-115).

Pros

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 133.2 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Justin Jefferson’s 138.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year marks a a noteworthy progression in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 103.0 mark.

Cons

The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
This year, the fierce Chiefs defense has conceded a feeble 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-lowest rate in the league.
The Chiefs pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts this year, allowing 6.65 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the 8th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
128
Receiving Yards