Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Raiders vs. Packers
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 238.5 (-125) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most efficient passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 8.08 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.5% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 123.6 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
- The Raiders have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 51.8 plays per game.
- This week, Jimmy Garoppolo is predicted by the projection model to average the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 35.8.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 10th-fewest yards in football (just 218.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Packers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards
271
Passing Yards
