Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel from EV Insight

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).

Pros

The projections expect Deebo Samuel to accrue 7.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
After accumulating 32.0 air yards per game last year, Deebo Samuel has seen marked improvement this year, currently boasting 47.0 per game.
Deebo Samuel’s 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 44.9.
Deebo Samuel has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 60.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Deebo Samuel’s 9.3 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a a remarkable progression in his receiving skills over last year’s 7.7 rate.

Cons

This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers offense as the most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 31.28 seconds per play.
Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards