Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
49ers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 54.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect Deebo Samuel to accrue 7.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- After accumulating 32.0 air yards per game last year, Deebo Samuel has seen marked improvement this year, currently boasting 47.0 per game.
- Deebo Samuel’s 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 44.9.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 60.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
- Deebo Samuel’s 9.3 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a a remarkable progression in his receiving skills over last year’s 7.7 rate.
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the 49ers offense as the most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 31.28 seconds per play.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
