NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh ReynoldsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, Josh Reynolds’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- Josh Reynolds has accrued significantly more air yards this season (59.0 per game) than he did last season (53.0 per game).
- Josh Reynolds’s 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 32.4.
- With a remarkable 50.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Reynolds ranks as one of the best wide receivers in the game in the league.
Cons
- The Lions are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Lions to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.44 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
