Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (+110/-151).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (+110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to notch 4.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 92nd percentile for TEs.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.41 seconds per play.
- Cole Kmet has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
- The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
