WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Raiders vs. Packers
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 14.5 (-130) after it opened @ 14.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
- Austin Hooper’s 81.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a a substantial progression in his receiving skills over last season’s 75.6% figure.
- Austin Hooper’s pass-game efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 10.51 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.95 rate last season.
- As it relates to linebackers rushing the passer, Green Bay’s unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the worst in football.
Cons
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.5% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 123.6 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
- The Raiders have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 51.8 plays per game.
- Austin Hooper has been a much smaller part of his offense’s pass attack this year (3.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (13.5%).
- Austin Hooper has put up far fewer air yards this season (11.0 per game) than he did last season (28.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
