Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 203.5 (-115) after it opened @ 197.5 (-114).

Pros

The Bears are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Justin Fields’s 227.0 passing yards per game this year illustrates a a noteable improvement in his throwing proficiency over last year’s 149.0 figure.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are projected by the projection model to run just 60.8 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
In this game, Justin Fields is expected by the projection model to have the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 27.2.
The Commanders defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
The Commanders cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
173
Passing Yards