Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-131) after it opened @ 46.5 (-121).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 4th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 43.6% run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.4 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
With an outstanding tally of 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (98th percentile), Jonathan Taylor places as one of the leading RBs in the league last year.

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
While Jonathan Taylor has received 67.6% of his offense’s carries in games he has played last year, the model projects him to be a much smaller part of Indianapolis’s ground game this week at 41.6%.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Tennessee Titans run defense has surrendered a massive 3.41 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s running game: the 32nd-largest rate in the league.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards