NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-131) after it opened @ 46.5 (-121).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 4th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 43.6% run rate.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.4 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- With an outstanding tally of 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (98th percentile), Jonathan Taylor places as one of the leading RBs in the league last year.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- While Jonathan Taylor has received 67.6% of his offense’s carries in games he has played last year, the model projects him to be a much smaller part of Indianapolis’s ground game this week at 41.6%.
- Since the start of last season, the deficient Tennessee Titans run defense has surrendered a massive 3.41 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s running game: the 32nd-largest rate in the league.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
