NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Saints
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 211.5 (-113) after it opened @ 213.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
- The predictive model expects the Saints to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The projections expect Derek Carr to attempt 36.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-most among all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in football vs. the Patriots defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The Saints O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Derek Carr has thrown for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (185.0) this season than he did last season (237.0).
- Derek Carr’s throwing efficiency has declined this season, compiling a measly 5.97 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.08 mark last season.
- This year, the fierce Patriots defense has conceded a paltry 216.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-best in the NFL.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England’s LB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
