Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Raiders vs. Packers
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-110).
Pros
- In this week’s game, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the projections to place in the 98th percentile among running backs with 18.9 rush attempts.
- Josh Jacobs has garnered 78.9% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football last year in run-blocking.
- This year, the poor Green Bay Packers run defense has yielded a monstrous 157.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the most in the NFL.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Green Bay’s unit has been awful this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Raiders to run on 39.3% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 123.6 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
- The Raiders have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 51.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Josh Jacobs’s 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year illustrates a an impressive decline in his rushing ability over last year’s 100.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
