Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-120) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to accumulate 18.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have used motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
