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Chris Meaney
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Rams
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the OVER up to 230.5 (+104) after it opened @ 224.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an impressive 7.80 yards-per-target while ranking in the 75th percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 31.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
- Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 63.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
