Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-105) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 18.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 56.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (88th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-least run-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.2% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this week (73.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (87.9% in games he has played).
- Joe Mixon’s ground efficiency has worsened this season, compiling a mere 2.74 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.09 mark last season.
- Joe Mixon has taken a step back when it comes to generating extra running yardage this year, accumulating 1.90 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.09 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
