Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Ezekiel Elliott from EV Insight

Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards

Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-120) after it opened @ 56.5 (-120).

Pros

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to total 15.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott has garnered 56.3% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards