Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Steelers
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.8% run rate.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The projections expect Dameon Pierce to total 16.5 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has grinded out 64.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football when it comes to RBs (91st percentile).
Cons
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Dameon Pierce has been much less involved in his team’s running game this season (60.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (77.3%).
- The Texans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- Dameon Pierce’s ground effectiveness has diminished this year, notching a mere 2.54 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.22 rate last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
