Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 89.5 yards (-124/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 89.5 (-124) after it opened @ 80.5 (-117).

Pros

The 49ers are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the 49ers to be the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 20.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has averaged 77.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (97th percentile).
The Cardinals defense owns the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, giving up 4.91 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.

Projection

THE BLITZ
88
Rushing Yards