Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-125) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.50 seconds per play.
- Zach Ertz has run a route on 82.2% of his team’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to total 6.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
- Zach Ertz has notched a monstrous 51.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among TEs.
- Zach Ertz has been among the leading pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 42.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- Zach Ertz’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling just 5.61 yards-per-target vs a 6.84 mark last season.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 6.28 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
