UFC 61 MMA Betting Odds

Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan headline UFC Vegas 61 after the UFC took a week break before continuing the MMA season. This week, we have two spectacular athletes facing off in the women’s strawweight division. With a win in this fight, either fighter will be one step closer to a title shot. Dern is looking to build off her recent win over Tecia Torres, while Yan is looking to snap her current two-fight losing streak. 

This week’s card shows the depth in the UFC roster and highlights fighters who have been on the roster for years and are just now beginning to taste the limelight. Hardcore fans will recognize heavy hitters like Mike Davis or long-time favorite and veteran of the sport Francisco Trinaldo, fighters who have fought top talent in the UFC for years and have a wealth of experience and feel for the Octagon that many do not. 

Below I will be breaking down every fight from a betting perspective and providing you with a best bet for each bout. All of the odds and bets provided will be from the BetMGM Sportsbook which you should download today if you haven’t already. 

Dern vs. Yan Odds

Mackenzie Dern (-250) vs. Yan Ziaonan (+200)

Yan comes into this fight as the underdog, which may be surprising considering she is the better striker and overall has more experience in the realm of MMA. 

She opened as a slight underdog at +175 but currently sits slightly higher at +200. The reasoning behind her being the underdog could be because of the grappling acumen of Dern. A multiple-time Jiu-Jitsu world champion and daughter of Jiu-Jitsu legend Megaton Dias, Dern has been competing in combat sports for a long time. Before stepping into the Octagon to fight, she was regarded as one of the best female Jiu-Jitsu athletes. She’s had the hype since day one in the UFC, and outside of her happy feet and sometimes uneducated head movement, Dern has shown grit, toughness and the ability to adapt and evolve with every fight. 

In this fight against Dern, Yan is the more technical striker, but I don’t think she possesses the power to knock Dern out. Dern can knock anyone out, she has lacked in the striking department but has improved over time with the proper technique and footwork to put it all together. Yan is a pressure fighter and averages 5.66 significant strikes landed per minute, compared to Dern, who averages 3.54. Yan averages 1.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, compared to Dern, who only averages 0.46. 

The problem for Yan is that once this fight gets to the ground, she may not get back up. Dern does not need many opportunities to end her night on the ground, considering how Yan has been taken down and controlled in past fights. I can’t see this fight being anything but a win for Dern, and from a betting perspective I will take her to win by sub and also take a stab at plus money by taking Dern to win by points in case Yan survives the onslaught.

Bets: Dern by Sub -115 / Dern by Points +320

Brown vs. Trinaldo Odds

Randy Brown (-300) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (+250)

In the UFC since 2016, Brown has shown good technique and the ability to utilize his long frame and height to his advantage. 

Still, the road to greatness has many bumps and bruises, and Randy has finally put it together and is now in the prime of his career and on a three-fight win streak. 

Trinaldo has been fighting MMA longer than some of the lives of fighters on the roster. When Brown was 16 years old, Trinaldo was making his professional debut at the age of 28. Making a name for himself on the Ultimate fighter Brazil, Trinaldo was well into his 30s when he was getting his first taste of the big show. 

Now almost 20 years later, a diminished Trinaldo will step into the Octagon once again to face a young, hungry and thriving Brown. With a six-inch height advantage and an eight-inch reach advantage, the only thing Trinaldo has going for him in this fight is his durability and toughness. Brown is bigger and can keep this fight at the end of his punches and kicks and coast to a decision win. 

Usually, the first thing to go as a fighter is your chin, then everything follows you off a cliff, but in Trinaldo’ s case, his toughness and chin are the only things keeping this 44-year-old body going. He can land a knockout punch and even possibly win a war of attrition if this fight goes into deep waters. 

Yet, even if it goes into deep waters, I believe that Randy can negate any takedowns and defend any powerful shots that Trinaldo may throw. Randy is young and hungry, and Trinaldo is old and diminished, and outside of a puncher’s chance, I can’t see Trinaldo winning in this matchup. Give me Brown to use his height and reach advantages and extend his winning streak to four.

Bet: Brown in Rd. 3 or Dec. -110

Barcelos vs. Jones Odds

Raoni Barcelos (-250) vs. Trevin Jones (+200)

Both fighters are now on a two-fight losing streak, and this fight on Saturday will be significant for the rest of their careers. Barcelos made his debut in the UFC in 2018 and quickly made a name for himself with five dominant wins, one of those wins over the talented Said Nurmagomedov. 

After a win in 2020 over Khalid Taha, Barcelos had three fights canceled and fought once in 2021, losing to talented bantamweight Timur Valiev. Considering Barcelos’ history with Russian fighters, it was a somewhat surprising loss. He was scheduled to fight Trevin Jones, but the fight was canceled along with a booking with Victor Henry. 

He would finally get his fight with Henry and lose by unanimous decision in a relatively poor performance by Barcelos. Barcelos gets an opportunity to end the losing skid by taking on Jones in a fight that was supposed to have happened in 2021. Jones is durable, and the only time he has been stopped in his career has been by submission. Jones has never been knocked out and isn’t a specialist in any area but is well-rounded and capable of winning with his power or on the ground if the submission presents itself. 

Jones has a grinding style and, in terms of volume, only averages 2.33 significant strikes landed per minute. Against Barcelos, who averages 5.33 significant strikes landed per minute, that may not be enough. 

Barcelos likes to start early and aggressive, and in this fight, I see him breaking Jones down and finding a couple of takedowns and even a finish, possibly late in the third round.

Bet: Barcelos in Rd. 3 or Dec. -105

Yusuff vs. Shainis Odds

Sodiq Yusuff (-1000) vs. Don Shainis (+650)

Usually, fighters who make it into the UFC are monsters on the regional scenes – they typically go on long winning streaks and are even double champs. 

Don Shainis makes his debut this weekend on the main card, which says a lot about his potential to become a star one day. His only problem is that he’s making his debut against the talented and dangerous Sodiq Yusuff. Shainis is built similarly to Sodiq in terms of being very muscular and athletic, but he is the smaller fighter by three inches in height and four inches in reach. 

Sodiq is the rude awakening for Shainis this weekend, and Yusuff opening as a -1000 favorite should tell you who the public and Vegas thinks will win. Shainis is a good wrestler, but if he can’t get this fight to the ground and somehow neutralize Sodiq, I don’t see him ever winning a striking match, and he could even get knocked out if he tries that route on Saturday. 

Because the line is too wide for a straight bet, I will be taking a prop and bet that this fight goes over 1.5 rounds and Sodiq finds a finish late in the second or early in the third round.  

Bet: Shainis vs. Yusuff o1.5 Rds. -155

Castaneda vs. Santos Odds

John Castaneda (-190) vs. Daniel Santos (+150)

Castaneda made his official debut in the UFC in 2020 after failing to get a contract in 2017 on The Contender Series. Castaneda has never had a particular skill set that can set him apart from the competition, but as of late has turned a new leaf, and his aggressive wrestling base style of fighting has been turned up another level. 

His last two wins were by stoppage, as he knocked out Eddie Wineland to get back into the win column after a loss and just recently beat Miles Johns, signifying that he was ready for the top of the division. 

Santos recently made his debut this past April. He had a war with Julio Arce, ate some big kicks and punches, and somehow survived to lose by decision. There is no doubt that Santos has power, and he can give just as good as he gets. But against calculated opponents, it can spell trouble for him. All Castaneda has to do is avoid the wild overhand strikes and flurries and take this fight to the ground and grind on Santos. 

I can see Santos fading in the second round and having nothing for Castaneda come the third round and being finished by a sub. Give me Castaneda to find a finish and win this fight in dominant fashion.

Bet: Santos vs. Castaneda FDGTD +105

Davis vs. Borshchev Odds

Mike Davis (-180) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+155)

After long layoffs and injuries from wars that Mike Davis has had since stepping into the UFC, Beast boy is back in the Octagon against fan-favorite Viacheslav Borshchev. It’s a shame that Davis hasn’t been more active, because his talent as a striker and overall MMA fighter is fun to watch. Every time he fights, you can expect a war. 

After his debut on The Contender Series went viral, Davis wouldn’t get the win but found his way into the UFC on short notice against Gilbert Burns. His toughness and ability to adapt on the fly makes Davis a dangerous fight, no matter how long he’s been away from the Octagon. Davis averages 6.33 significant strikes per minute and blends an array of punches and kicks at a 53% accuracy rate. If Davis was more active, there’d be no doubt we’d be talking about him being a champion or possibly contending to be one. 

His opponent, Borshchev, may be new to the UFC crowd in the states, but in his home country he has over 300 professional kickboxing matches and is one of the best strikers to step foot in the gym at Team Alpha Male. After doing research on him for The Contender Series, Borshchev’s only problem was keeping the fight standing and keeping wrestlers off him. It was a task he would do successfully in his first few fights until he was neutralized entirely by Marc Diakiese, someone who is known as a striker but decided to go the wrestling route to avoid the dangers of trying to strike with Borshchev. 

Borshchev doesn’t average a high volume of significant strikes. Still, he is deadly accurate, averaging a 63% rate of striking accuracy. When he does have opportunities to attack, he can shut your lights out in an instant. I will lean on both fighters’ durability and take this fight to the distance.

Bet: Davis vs. Borshchev FGTD +110

Latifi vs. Oleinik Odds

Ilir Latifi (-175) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+150)

In a battle of old titans, Ilir Latifi squares off against grappling legend Aleksei Oleinik. Oleinik seems to want to fight until he’s in the grave as he steps in for his 78th fight at 45. 

This fight is going to be ugly, and from a betting perspective, I will not be siding with either fighter. Instead, I’ll take the over prop, as I think this will be a grinded-out fight where Latifi can win late if he doesn’t tire out beforehand or get choked out. 

Bet: Latifi vs. Oleinik o1.5 Rds. -130

Penne vs. Ricci Odds

Jessica Penne (+180) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-210)

If you have read any of my past articles, I tend to fade most women’s MMA bouts because of their volatility and sometimes confusing decisions. Yet in this fight, I like the matchup between Jessica Penne and budding star Tabatha Ricci. 

Penne is making another run after a debut in 2014 and a short run until 2017, after her fight with Danielle Taylor was suspended for four years due to a violation. Penne would return in 2021 and win twice by decision and submission, which gave her momentum going into her fight with Emily Ducote, where she again faced doubt after a subpar performance and loss. 

Ricci is outmatched in this fight in the height and reach department, but she makes up for it by having a lifetime of Judo training under her belt. Ricci also has a solid wrestling base, and if she can get this fight to the mat, she can make this a long 15 minutes for Penne. I am not saying this is going to be pretty. Still, I am saying that Ricci can do enough to close the distance and make Penne wrestle defensively until she eventually breaks and finds herself on her back. 

Penne has to keep Ricci at the end of her strikes and avoid getting into clinch positions or situations that can lead to her being on the ground where the “baby shark” has the advantage.

Bet: Ricci by Points -152

Silva vs. Ronson Odds

Joaquim Silva (-145) vs. Jesse Ronson (+115)

This fight is an excellent example of fighters who, if you didn’t know any better, you’d think were making their debuts. Two fighters who have never been consistent get the opportunity to shake off a string of losses and get back into the win column. 

The fact that both of these guys are so inconsistent could be why the line movement and the recent knockout losses for Silva don’t help, either. This fight will be ugly, but if Silva can stay away from the countering Ronson and occasionally work in his grappling and dominate on the ground, I can see Silva finding a finish by submission or a win by decision. 

Ronson can wrestle and can have success, but everywhere that he is good I believe that Santos is just a bit better. Santos has been chinny in his recent fights, but hopefully he chooses the path of least resistance and occasionally grapples. 

Bet: Silva ML -145

Allen vs. Jotko Odds

Brendan Allen (+105) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (-120)

My dog of the week is Brendan Allen. He instantly moved to a slight underdog once people caught wind of his last fight, where he was controlled for the better part of the fight and squeaked out a win against a lesser Jacob Malkoun by causing more damage for brief moments while they stood. In all of his fights, Allen has evolved and has an aggressive high pace that can help him in this fight against a predominately counter-striker like Jotko, who sometimes starts slowing in fights and finds himself waiting and letting his moments to strike go by. 

I understand that many people will think that Jotko may find success if he decides to wrestle, but I feel that people forget that Allen is a black belt in Jiu Jitsu and can also find ways to win on the ground. 

I think since his last fight, Allen has worked his wrestling hard and in this fight will show his improvements and find a dominant win.

Bet: Allen ML +105

Grishin vs. Lins Odds

Maxim Grishin (-175) vs. Philipe Lins (+145)

With minimal differences between Philipe Lins and Maxim Grishin, this fight is a classic light heavyweight bout where both fighters are identical in height and reach and possess the power to turn the lights off at any moment. Where they differ, in my opinion, is in their striking technique, as Grishin seems to be cleaner and more technical when he strikes, whereas Lins possesses power but not the same amount of technique. 

Lins does average more takedowns per 15 minutes at 1.23, but Grishin has a 66% takedown defense, and I think he will do enough to keep this fight standing and find a knockout or win this fight unanimously on the judges’ score cards. 

From a betting perspective, I’m going to side with Grishin and hope he finds a head-kick finish over the aggressive Lins.

The Bet: Grishin by KO/TKO or Dec. +170

Costa vs. Cannetti Odds

Randy Costa (-285) vs. Guido Cannetti (+240)

Canetti has fought top-tier talent in the past, and Costa is not the best fighter he’s ever fought. But at 42 years old, and after his last performances have shown his age, Guido is now reaching the final phases of his career while Costa, on the other hand, is looking to find momentum in his young career. 

After making his debut in 2019, the Zohan Randy Costa lost and quickly won his next two fights, knocking his opponents out under a combined time of 77 seconds. Guido will come into this fight not looking any bit of 42 years old. 

Still, his performance may say otherwise, as I think that Costa should find a finish early and get back into the win column after suffering two recent knockout losses. Give me Costa to send Cannetti into retirement, turn things around and make a run for the rankings.

Bet: Costa in Rds. 1 or 2 -165