Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Steelers vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-135) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Jets have been the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to notch 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Tyler Conklin has accumulated a monstrous 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
- Tyler Conklin has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this season, playing on 89.7% of snaps compared to just 89.7% last season.
- The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
