Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-135) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Jets have been the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Conklin to notch 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Conklin has accumulated a monstrous 28.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
Tyler Conklin has been a more integral piece of his team’s offense this season, playing on 89.7% of snaps compared to just 89.7% last season.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards