Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-115) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
- Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 100.0% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to accrue 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
- Ja’Marr Chase has accrued a monstrous 108.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 7.34 yards-per-target compared to a 10.20 figure last season.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (64.1%) to WRs since the start of last season (64.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
