NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Patriots are a giant 9.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to be much more involved in his team’s pass game this week (11.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
- Hunter Henry has posted a colossal 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among TEs.
- Hunter Henry has been among the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 33.0 yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- Hunter Henry’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.6% to 61.8%.
- Hunter Henry’s pass-game efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 5.50 yards-per-target vs a 8.55 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
