Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 9/30)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

Baltimore +1.5 -142 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

With just a handful of games left in the 2022 MLB regular season, Wild Card races are coming down to the wire. The Yankees have locked in the AL East, but the Orioles are still fighting for their playoff hopes. With limited games remaining, Baltimore cannot afford to lose more games. 

The Orioles are five games back in the AL Wild Card, and their hopes of making the postseason are fading. This Orioles team was expected to finish last in the AL East, yet they have put together a fantastic season. 

I do not think the Orioles can beat the Yankees here, but I know they will put up a fight. Baltimore opened as +163 underdogs, but they have been bet down to +143 underdogs on the moneyline. Given the price, I think there is a lot more value on Baltimore covering the run and a half. 

The Orioles are one of the best teams in the MLB at covering as an underdog. On the season, Baltimore is 81-45 covering the spread as an underdog. This means they have been undervalued all year long, and I do not think that stops Friday. 

Jordan Lyles will make the start for the Orioles. In 31 starts this year, Lyles is 11-11 with a 4.55 ERA, a 4.46 FIP and a 1.41 WHIP. This will be his sixth time facing the Yankees this season but his first time since the end of July. The Orioles are 3-2 straight up in games Lyles has started against the Yankees. 

When pitching away from Camden Yards this season, Lyles has had a rough go. On the road, his ERA jumps to 5.56, he has a .283 batting average against, a .515 slugging percentage against, a 5.20 FIP and a 1.46 WHIP. 

Domingo Germán will make the start for the Yankees. On the season, Germán is 2-3 with a 3.30 ERA, a 4.42 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP. In his last start at home, He allowed three runs on three hits with five strikeouts in five innings of work. In his limited home starts this season, Germán has a 3.86 ERA, a .430 slugging percentage against, a 4.83 FIP and a 1.14 WHIP. 

Backing the Orioles here is mostly due to line movement and my projections. Seeing how the Orioles became shorter underdogs on the moneyline and the run line, that is already indicating that Baltimore is the right side. Considering I have this game priced at BAL +1.5 -160, there is certainly value in BAL +1.5 -142. 

Bet: Orioles +1.5 -142 (FanDuel Sportsbook)