NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Cardinals
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-136/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (+105) after it opened @ 42.5 (-114).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
- George Kittle has run a route on 88.1% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- The model projects George Kittle to accrue 5.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- George Kittle has accrued a staggering 41.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cons
- The 49ers are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- George Kittle’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.7% to 71.1%.
- George Kittle’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, totaling just 7.86 yards-per-target vs a 9.21 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
