NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Matt BreidaRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Seahawks
Right now, Matt Breida’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-110).
Pros
- While Matt Breida has received 11.9% of his team’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of New York’s run game this week at 37.0%.
- Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-most yards in football (141 per game) versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, Seattle’s LB corps has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Rushing Yards
44
Rushing Yards
