Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Steelers vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-125) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Jets have been the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 67.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to garner 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks him in the 80th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
- The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.50 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Receiving Yards
55
Receiving Yards
