NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 19.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Durham Smythe has been a more important option in his team’s air attack this year (10.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.8%).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
- Durham Smythe’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.3% to 73.6%.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 30.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
