Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Falcons vs. Browns
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to accumulate 8.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
- Drake London has been among the most efficient receivers in the NFL, averaging a stellar 10.17 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons have used some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Drake London has been among the bottom wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
