Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Steelers vs. Jets
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-105) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to earn 11.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- Diontae Johnson has accrued a whopping 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wideouts.
- Diontae Johnson’s 77.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 67.8.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Diontae Johnson’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, compiling just 6.10 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 rate last year.
- Diontae Johnson’s ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this season, totaling a measly 2.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.16 mark last season.
- The New York Jets pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards
82
Receiving Yards
