Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-105) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to earn 11.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has accrued a whopping 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson’s 77.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 67.8.

Cons

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Diontae Johnson’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, compiling just 6.10 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 rate last year.
Diontae Johnson’s ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this season, totaling a measly 2.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.16 mark last season.
The New York Jets pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards