Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
49ers vs. Rams
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 7.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
- Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 26.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Deebo Samuel has garnered a colossal 25.6% of his offense’s air yards since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among WRs.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.0 plays per game.
- Deebo Samuel’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.5% to 61.2%.
- Deebo Samuel’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, accumulating just 7.15 yards-per-target vs a 10.42 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
