Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Cardinals
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-105) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to garner 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
- D.J. Moore has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 28.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- D.J. Moore has posted a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- D.J. Moore’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 59.7% to 46.7%.
- D.J. Moore’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching just 6.36 yards-per-target vs a 7.53 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
