Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for CeeDee Lamb from EV Insight

CeeDee LambReceiving Yards

Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 59.5 (-120).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to notch 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb has accrued a colossal 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a much smaller part of his team’s pass attack this week (26.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
CeeDee Lamb’s ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 52.3%.
CeeDee Lamb’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating just 6.15 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards