NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Richie JamesReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Bears
Right now, Richie James’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (+100) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Richie James to earn 7.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
- Richie James has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing a stellar 88.0% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown bad efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, conceding 8.79 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in the league.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has struggled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.04 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-most in football.
Cons
- The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in football.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
