Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 274.5 (-129) after it opened @ 273.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.90 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the league.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 32.4 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Joe Burrow’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.6% to 66.3%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards