NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 274.5 (-129) after it opened @ 273.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.90 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 32.4 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Joe Burrow’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.6% to 66.3%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards
250
Passing Yards
