Week 4 fantasy flames: Mike Davis demands you start him

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 19 fantasy points, RB: 12 points, WR: 11 points, TE: 10 points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 4 Flames in the comments section below.

Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

(26% started in Yahoo start DK DFS: $5,900)
Matchup: at CIN
Vegas line/Total: CIN -3.5, 47.5

In the facial hair fracas with Ryan Fitzpatrick, it was The Lorax, sporting the sweetest post-game look from the Magnum P.I. ensemble, who got the last laugh. Under intense duress, inaccurate, turnover prone and visibly frustrated, Minshew resembled the sixth-round pick most league scouts never gave a chance. Naturally, his fantasy backers blared their favorite breakup song intoxicated with recency bias. His nearly impeccable play Weeks 1-2 (20.8 fantasy points vs. IND; 25.5 at TEN) was a distant memory.

Immediately dismissing Minshew for one spoiled opportunity is a classic “rookie move.” His QB7 standing in adjusted completion percentage suggests confidence should remain high. D.J. Chark’s health is crucial to his success, but with the receiver likely to return this week, firing up Minshew in deeper formats is recommended. It’s Cincinnati after all, a club with one of the worst overall defenses in the league. To be fair, the cuddly Bengals have given up just 6.5 pass yards per attempt, 217.3 pass yards and three touchdowns to signal callers, but tops in total air yards surrendered, they’re a wonderful matchup for a QB off a mini bye.

Fearless forecast: 241 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 20 rushing yards, 19.6 fantasy points

Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers

(58%; $5,700)
Matchup: vs. ARZ
Vegas line/Total: ARZ -4, 51.5

When Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley were felled by significant injuries, the fantasy world instantly tilted. Without a normal offseason, including standard training regimens, major physical setbacks were an inevitability. Sadly, no one could’ve expected the consensus No. 1 and No. 2 picks to suffer the injury imp’s wrath this early. But in a next-man-up league, one rusher’s exit is another rusher’s opportunity. Davis, filling CMC’s enormous shoes last week in Los Angeles, seized the moment. With Reggie Bonnafon spelling him only sporadically, he totaled 91 yards and a touchdown on 21 touches. Through three weeks, he’s tallied a godlike 36.7% missed tackle rate and hauled in 94.1% of his intended targets. He may not be a luxury Italian import, but he’s a reliable sedan who’ll drive you from Point A to Point B.

Don’t play Davis this week against a friendly Arizona front and you’re dropping the ball on the goal line, DK Metcalf style. For a script-agnostic back, the Cardinals present are the picture-perfect opponent. Their brisk pace and overall looseness on defense portend positive results. This season, Arizona has allowed 4.4 yards per carry, 169.0 total yards per game and three total touchdowns to rushers. Additionally, ‘Zona is the 11th-worst team in total missed tackles. Davis should make Sir Purr dance, and often.

Fearless forecast: 14 carries, 56 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 37 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.3 fantasy points

Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins

(18%; $5,000)
Matchup: vs. SEA
Vegas line/Total: SEA -7, 54.5

Ricky Williams. Larry Csonka. Gaskin. The rusher’s 27 touches last Thursday against Jacksonville was an exhaustive workload reminiscent of yesteryear. During this time of endless RB carnage, it was pure catnip for gamers voracious for volume running backs. Though Jordan Howard, who’s showcased the power and burst of a peg-legged Matt Asiata, continues to reprise his useless goal-line gremlin role, Gaskin’s tireless 29.8 opportunity share (RB16) through three weeks lends hope he can maintain borderline RB2 value in 12-team PPR leagues moving forward. His 3.03 yards after contact per attempt, 22.6 missed tackle percentage and 93.8 catch percentage only solidifies the belief.

Strangely, Seattle’s secondary has been its weakest link. With Shaquill Griffin and Jamal Adams on roster, most, this dunderhead included, believed it was a unit to fear. But giving up a miniscule 2.7 yards per carry, it’s the ‘Hawks’ defensive front that’s proved unyielding. Jarran Reed’s run-stuffing ability isn’t alluring for Gaskin backers, but in a projected high-scoring affair, it’s the rusher’s deft hands that boost the profile. Likely scoreboard chasing, he could rack receptions early and often. At a minimum, he’s a quality flex option in 12-team leagues.

Fearless forecast: 13 carries, 42 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 39 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 17.1 fantasy points

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

(11%; $5,200)
Matchup: at HOU
Vegas line/Total: HOU -4, 51.5

For first-year players mitigated by the absent preseason, Weeks 1-2 were effectively their indoctrination period. Jefferson, a highly publicized first-round pick blessed with 4.43 speed, terrific versatility and contested catch toughness, made small waves against Green Bay and Indy, combining for five receptions and 70 yards. However, with his feet completely drenched, last Sunday the rookie exploded, blasting the Tennessee Titans for 175 yards and a TD on seven receptions. Inside the top-10 among WRs in yards per target (16.33), yards per route run (3.40) and YAC per reception (8.25) and blessed with a cakewalk schedule, he should chip in steady WR3 numbers from here on out. Minnesota’s elastic defense combined with Jefferson’s secured weekly target share offers considerable encouragement.

In fairness, Houston, reprimanded consistently for its projected soft secondary by this blathering moron, hasn’t lived down to expectations. In fact, the Texans have yielded the fourth-fewest yards to wide receivers and 7.1 pass yards per attempt. Bradley Roby (111.9 passer rating) and Eric Murray (71.8) have split time defending the slot, an area where Jefferson has lined up 59.7% of the time, totaling 171 of his 245 receiving yards. Still, with the youngster’s confidence soaring and Kirk Cousins starting to find his rhythm, he’s a highly employable WR3 in 12-team formats, if COVID-19 worries don’t temporarily derail the breakout.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 70 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.5 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

K.J. Hamler, WR, Denver Broncos

(2%; $3,800)
Matchup: at NYJ
Vegas line/Total: DEN -2.5, 40

After three straight entertaining Thursday night contests, the NFL awards viewers with a barn-burner between Brett Rypien and Sam Darnold. Cleaning Mr. Whisker’s litter bin offers more excitement. This is the meekest of meek matchups, a unique viewing hell. Then again, after the sports desert we experienced throughout the summer that was, any complaints shouldn’t apply. Still, anything involving Adam Gase calls for multiple tequila shots. Really, the entire bottle.

However, Denver’s rookie spark plug should captivate fantasy GMs’ attention. His quick twitch, sharp cuts and evasiveness in the open field are eye-catching attributes. He, like almost every Bronco, didn’t make anything more than a peep in last week’s dismantling at the hands of the Buccaneers. But under the surface, he’s a smoldering volcano waiting to explode. He’s WR2 in average cushion (8.6) and WR13 in average intended air yards per target (15.6). With 12 targets over his past two games, he’s on the precipice of a breakout. The Jets are the perfect foe to accomplish just that.

New York’s touring comedy troupe has delighted audiences with their hilariously inept execution. Defensively, the Jets have yielded 7.6 pass yards per attempt, though, due to teams running down their throats protecting lopsided leads, they’ve given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to WRs. Working primarily out of the slot, look for Hamler to attract ample targets from Rypien. His primary assignment, Brian Poole, has allowed a 73.7 catch percentage on the year.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.1 fantasy points

Bonus shocker — Isaiah Ford, WR, MIA (Line: SEA -6.5; DK: $3,700) — DeVante Parker, Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki deservedly receive all the pub, but Ford, who’s played on over 65% of Miami’s snaps, is a dart throw worth tossing in deep formats. Quietly he’s tallied 11 receptions for 103 yards on 15 targets. Seattle is horrendous in coverage, evidenced by its 400-plus pass yards per game allowed. In a game Ryan Fitzpatrick may chuck it 60 times, Ford could be the out-of-nowhere Cedrick Wilson of Week 4. (FF: 5-67-1, 15.2 fantasy points)

Bonus flames (under 60% started)

QB: Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (Line: TEN -1.5; DK: $6,500) — Living by the Rule of Three, one of the axioms learned over the early season slate is “Stack players against the Titans.” When it comes to defense, Tennessee is 10 whiskeys deep stumbling down Broadway. In the bottom-10 in defensive pressure percentage and allowing 7.7 pass yards per attempt, they’ve surrendered bountiful chunk plays. Even if Diontae Johnson (concussion) isn’t cleared in time for Sunday’s kick, Big Ben is a highly employable QB. He’s struggled with passes beyond 20 yards (QB27 in deep-ball completion percentage), but top-10 in adjusted completion percentage and with at least two passing TDs in three consecutive games, he’s slinging it with much fantasy success. If this game is played (Keep COVID-19 concerns in mind), Big Ben is a back-end QB1 in 12-teamers. (FF: 266-2-0-4, 19.0 fantasy points)

RB: Darrell Henderson, LAR (Line: LAR -11.5; DK: $5,800) — What RBBC? With Cam Akers deactivated due to a rib injury, last year’s much-publicized rookie who never materialized stole the show. In what was nearly a historic comeback win at Buffalo, the former Memphis Tiger mauled Bills tacklers commanding the “timeshare” over Malcolm Brown. On a libido-driving 21 touches, he totaled 120 yards and penetrated the end zone. So far, he’s accumulated 3.06 yards after contact per attempt (RB17) and RB6 yards created per touch running behind a much-improved Rams line. This week gifted the lowly Giants, featuring a run defense that’s allowed 3.7 yards per carry, 153.3 total yards per game, four total touchdowns and the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs, he’s unquestionably a top-20 RB play. (FF: 18-93-1-1-7-0, 16.5 fantasy points)

RB: Latavius Murray, NO (Line: NO -4.5; DK: $4,900) — The sledgehammer to Alvin Kamara’s suave, Murray, though erratic for fantasy devices, can occasionally drive rail spikes. He’s the brawn, a bulldozing downhill power back who can push through arm tackles with relative ease. Trailing only Kareem Hunt and Henderson in rush over expected percentage, he slams his way to quality gains when called upon. He’s yet to cross the chalk, but bank on his third double-digit workload in four games. The lovable Lions welcome New Orleans this week. Detroit, which ranks No. 7 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs, has relinquished 6.1 yards per carry, 145.3 rush yards per game and two rush TDs. Behind the Saints’ rigid offensive line Murray is a player with measurable flex appeal in 12-team leagues. (FF: 14-52-1-1-6-0, 12.4 fantasy points)

WR: CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Line: DAL -4.5; DK: $5,400) — Associated team defense is one of the most underreported yet wholly influential characteristics a fantasy GM should seek in his wide receiver. When an abysmal defense is combined with a dart-throwing, strong-armed quarterback it gathers the perfect storm. Lamb, though sharing the sugar with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz, is fully weathering one. “Little D” applies in Jerry World, which bolsters scoring opportunities for Lamb. Operating out of the slot 90.8% of the time, the rookie has amassed 11 receptions for 165 yards and a TD on 15.0% of the target share. Most impressively, he’s WR7 in YAC per reception (7.55). This week square dancing with a Cleveland D routinely gashed underneath — it’s allowed the most yards to slot receivers — he’s practically a must start. Browns slot CB Tavierre Thomas has given up a 115.1 passer rating and 1.25 yards per snap to his assignments. (FF: 5-76-1, 15.1 fantasy points)

TE: Rob Gronkowski, TB (Line: TB -7.5; DK: $3,600) — Chris Godwin’s string of unfortunate events added another chapter last week as he exited with a hamstring injury. Presumably cursed after a breakout year, the maligned wideout is trending in the wrong direction. With Godwin likely sidelined, O.J. Howard and Gronk will be leaned on to pick up the slack. The latter, off a season-best 7-6-48-0 line in Denver, has been mostly block-tied, but last week’s showing was a glimpse of his prior form. His 8.00 YAC per reception (TE6) is another reason for optimism, if the end-zone targets come. Shockingly, Tom Brady has looked Gronk’s direction inside the red zone only once. That should change this week against a Chargers defense with lockdown corners and generally soft over-the-middle coverage. (FF: 4-38-1, 11.8 fantasy points)

Bonus bonus flame: Devin Singletary, RB, BUF (Line: BUF -3; DK: $5,900) — Underpublicized, the sophomore rusher has dodged more would-be tacklers than a certain someone did tax collectors. On 43 total touches, he’s amassed a ridiculous 32.4% missed tackle rate. With or without Zack Moss, he’s a highly trustworthy RB2 versus a Vegas defense bankrupt by the run. The Raiders have conceded a jaw-dropping 5.9 yards per carry, 218.0 total yards per game and seven TDs to RBs. If Sony Michel’s lumbering ass can hit the century mark, so can Singletary. (FF: 15-77-1-4-32-0, 18.9 fantasy points)

Super bonus flame: Carlos Hyde, RB, SEA (Line: SEA -6.5; DK: $5,300) — The gator roll Dallas DT Trystan Hill exercised on a defenseless Chris Carson, causing the rusher to sprain his knee, was appalling. With Carson probably a 50/50 shot to play, Hyde, plucked off waivers in droves, is deployable at RB2 or flex in 12-team leagues. His 1.69 YAC per attempt and zero missed tackles forced on 19 touches paint a picture of woeful inefficiency. Travis Homer, too, will be involved, but it’s difficult overlooking the matchup. Miami has allowed 4.6 yards per carry and 87.0 rush yards per game to RBs. And you know with Russell Wilson cookin’, he’ll see nothing but favorable fronts. Fire him up if Carson sits. (14-53-1-3-14-0, 14.2 fantasy points)