Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Eagles
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-139) after it opened @ 47.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 8.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.0% run rate.
- The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.
- The model projects Rachaad White to notch 14.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Rachaad White’s rushing effectiveness (3.20 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (22nd percentile among RBs).
- The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
