Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 55.5 (-120) after it opened @ 56.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.9 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 16.0 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Najee Harris has picked up 60.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (91st percentile).
- The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles profile as the 7th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a much smaller piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (66.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (77.2% in games he has played).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Najee Harris’s running effectiveness (2.97 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (17th percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
